AI Layoffs Went Quiet. Goldman Says They're Waiting for a Recession

Goldman Says They're Waiting for a Recession", reporting that announced job cuts citing artificial intelligence peaked at 38,579 in May, a month in which such cuts represented 40% of everything announced. The same measure fell to 3,961 in September. The article states that over that period AI slid from the top reason given for layoffs to fifth among the reasons employers cited.

The article attributes to Goldman a reading of history in which firms lean on attrition and hiring freezes while the economy is healthy, rather than announcing reductions outright. The article also notes that the decline may partly reflect employers choosing other labels for the same decisions, citing restructuring as an example.

The article's evidence is limited to announced cuts and the labels employers attach to them. It gives no company-level figures, no sector breakdown, and no forecast of the volume of cuts to come; the two months reported are May and September. Employers' stated reasons are treated throughout as labels rather than as measurements, which the article offers as a partial explanation for the September number. Its framing of the lull as a wait for a recession rests on Goldman's historical generalisation rather than on any projection the excerpt reports.