Methodology — the receipts
How this list is built.
The taxonomy is fixed: 40occupations across eight categories, chosen to span the full range of arguments in the literature — from “near-total automation” (telemarketers, data-entry clerks) to “barely touched for a decade” (plumbers, surgeons). Each role carries a baseline risk score lifted from published research, with the source cited on the role’s row so you can check our working.
These baselines are task-exposurefigures — the share of a job’s tasks that today’s models could plausibly automate. That’s not the same as “% of jobs that will disappear”. Goldman’s original paper is explicit about this: high exposure can mean augmentation, lower labour intensity, or displacement, depending on how firms respond. We treat the score as a prior, not a prediction.
Where the baselines come from
- Goldman Sachs 2023 — Hatzius / Briggs, The Potentially Large Effects of Generative AI. Per-occupation probability of task exposure to LLMs. Most of our tech / legal / finance / creative baselines come from here.
- WEF Future of Jobs 2023 & 2024 — share of tasks automatable and projected role growth / decline. Used for clerical and customer-facing roles.
- McKinsey Global Institute — Generative AI and the Future of Work (2023 + 2024 updates). Sector-level timing estimates.
- OECD 2024 — AI and Jobs. Cross-country exposure by occupation; used as a tiebreaker where GS and WEF disagreed.
- Frey & Osborne 2013 — Oxford. Historical source, included only for roles (telemarketers) that more recent studies stopped separately measuring.
How the live counts work
Every article the AI Risk Clock processes gets sent to DeepSeek alongside the full taxonomy. The model returns a short JSON list of which roles the article meaningfully discussesin connection with AI — not passing mentions, not inferred categories — plus a sentiment tag per role:
- Displaced article frames AI as replacing, reducing demand for, or causing layoffs in this role.
- Augmented article frames AI as enhancing productivity or augmenting existing workers in this role.
- New roles article frames AI as creating new jobs in or adjacent to this role.
- Neutral role is discussed in connection with AI but without a clear directional claim.
Each mention carries a short evidence snippet quoting or paraphrasing the line that earned the tag. The per-role counts shown above are rolling 14-day totals; the sentiment bar is the last 7 days only.
Caveats
- This is a media-coveragemeasure, not a labour-market one. It tells you which roles the AI narrative is currently spotlighting, not which are actually being lost. A role with zero mentions this week is not safe — it’s just unloved by headline writers.
- The taxonomy is deliberately coarse. “Software engineers” includes a kernel engineer and a WordPress developer — two very different task mixes and very different exposure profiles.
- Baselines were published between 2013 and 2024. The field moves faster than the research. Treat them as a starting prior, not as current fact.
- DeepSeek’s classification is probabilistic, not deterministic; re-running the same article can produce slightly different sentiment labels. Aggregates are more reliable than any single row.
- We intentionally do not publish a single “clock number” for labour impact. Displacement net of creation is a decades-long question; any aggregate here would be false precision.