A Pre-mortem on The First Major AI-Enabled Terrorism Event and The Choices That Could Enable it: Plus 9 Predictions | The Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

The Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs has published an analysis headlined 'A Pre-mortem on The First Major AI-Enabled Terrorism Event and The Choices That Could Enable it: Plus 9 Predictions'. The analysis is framed as a pre-mortem, an assessment written in advance of the event it examines, and it sets out nine predictions. It addresses the first major terrorism event enabled by artificial intelligence and the choices that could allow such an event to occur.

The analysis notes that since summer 2025, major developers have stated in model cards that they cannot rule out capabilities enabling novice actor uplift on biological, cyber or chemical tasks. It also states that OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol model, released in June 2026, crossed the company's own 'High' capability threshold. The excerpt refers to major developers collectively and does not name them individually. The excerpt summarises those statements but does not quote the model cards directly.

By placing the assessment before the event rather than after it, the analysis directs attention to choices that could enable an AI-enabled terrorism event rather than to the event itself. The nine predictions are presented alongside that discussion of enabling choices, indicating that both form part of the same document. The excerpt provided does not identify the individual predictions, nor does it name the specific choices discussed in the full analysis. It also does not state the article's publication date.