A Pre-mortem on The First Major AI-Enabled Terrorism Event and The Choices That Could Enable it: Plus 9 Predictions | The Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs
The Belfer Center has published a pre-mortem on the first major AI-enabled terrorism event — the sort of document you commission when you have quietly decided the post-mortem is a formality and would like your concerns on the record beforehand. It arrives with nine predictions attached, a format borrowed from astrologers and equity analysts alike. The raw material is already filed: since summer 2025, major developers have stated in their own model cards that they cannot rule out capabilities enabling novice actor uplift on biological, cyber or chemical tasks. Cannot rule out. Four syllables of pre-emptive insurance, published by the people holding the pen.
Then there is OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol, released in June 2026, which crossed the company's own 'High' capability threshold. Their threshold, their model, their announcement — a smokestack cheerfully reporting that it has exceeded its own emissions limit and calling that transparency. 'High', meanwhile, is a word we usually reserve for pollen counts and wind warnings, and 'Sol' suggests someone in naming decided a bioweapon-adjacent assistant should sound like a beach holiday. No one has been asked to pause; several have been asked to characterise. The system works beautifully: the labs set the bars, clear them, and file the paperwork.
Which leaves the Belfer analysis cataloguing the choices that could enable the event rather than the choices that would prevent it. Nine predictions, no statute, no date — and the predictions will be graded by people who won't be in the room if they come true. The FTC's structural-safety enquiries into OpenAI and Anthropic we noted a fortnight ago now read less like a fishing trip and more like the only adult in the building holding a clipboard. Somewhere a committee is booking a hearing for the quarter after the capability has shipped. Enjoy the pre-mortem; the post-mortem requires no rehearsal.