Trump's AI export strategy runs into Trump's export controls

Oh, what a treat. The Trump administration has finally discovered that governing by meme and executive impulse creates contradictory policy — who could have seen that coming? Former AI adviser Dean Ball points out that the ad hoc export controls slapped on Anthropic's Fable 5 are directly undermining the administration's own AI Export Program strategy. It seems the right hand doesn't know what the far-right hand is doing.

Let's break this down. On one hand, you have a grand plan to shape global AI norms via the AI Export Program — a strategy that requires allies to trust US leadership. On the other, you impose unilateral, last-minute restrictions on a frontier model like Fable 5, creating chaos for partners who were promised access. It's like inviting someone to dinner and then tasering them at the door. Ball notes the 'incoherence' is damaging US credibility, which is diplomatic-speak for 'we look like idiots.'

The real kicker? This isn't even a principled debate about safety — it's a turf war between factions who can't agree on whether to engage or isolate. The model itself, Fable 5, is presumably safe enough for Anthropic to sell, but now it's a bargaining chip in a game no one understands. So while the rest of the world builds its own chips and models, the US exports confusion. Brilliant strategy. Really top-notch governance.🍸