Most Countries Will Not Win the AI Race, but They Still Need a Strategy

The piece argues that very few governments can plausibly reproduce the whole AI chain, from advanced semiconductors and large-scale compute to cloud infrastructure and frontier models. It contends that for the large majority of states, the realistic position is not that of a leader but that of an "intelligent customer."

According to the analysis, states need enough technical capacity to be intelligent customers. This implies that governments should be able to understand, evaluate, and procure AI systems effectively, even if they cannot build them from the ground up. The article does not identify specific countries or provide numerical data, but instead focuses on the strategic implications of the current concentration of AI capabilities. It highlights the wide range of elements involved in the AI chain, including chips, computing power, cloud services, and the models themselves.

The piece concludes that, despite the unlikelihood of winning the AI race, countries still need a strategy. It suggests that the relevant policy question for most governments is not how to build a frontier model, but how to manage dependence on external providers and make informed decisions about AI adoption. It frames the pursuit of a national AI strategy as a necessity even for those that cannot compete for leadership.