AI Self - Creates with 60% Probability: Anthropic Co - founders Can't Sit Still Before End of 2028 - eu.36kr.com

Anthropic co-founder Jack Clark has made a prediction that is either a bold insight or a very expensive way to generate a headline: a 60% chance of 'recursive self-improvement' before 2029. 'Recursive self-improvement' — the kind of phrase that makes you picture a model rewriting its own code while humming 'I Will Survive.' Clark posts this on X, naturally, because where else would you announce humanity's probable obsolescence?

Let's sit with that 60% number for a moment. It's not quite 'flip a coin,' but it's close enough that any sane person would start updating their resume for a post-human job market. Clark claims this is 'based on tracking AI progress,' which is about as specific as saying 'based on vibes from a few benchmarks.' Setting aside that Anthropic's entire brand is built on safety — they exist literally to avoid this scenario — one of their co-founders is now casually pencilling in a 2028 date for the AI to start improving itself.

What's the plan here? If the machine can rewrite its own source code, government pre-approval (see last week's policy chatter) becomes a joke. Clark has effectively told the world that the thing they should be most terrified of has a better-than-even chance of arriving in roughly two gubernatorial election cycles. But no need to panic — it's only a probability. Cheers, Jack. We'll be in the corner, not sitting still either.